Détails Publication
Media campaigns, early diagnosis, isolation and treatment on bacterial meningitis outbreak prevention: A modeling study,
Discipline: Mathématiques
Auteur(s): Ousmane Koutou, Wendkouni Ouedraogo, Hamidou Ouedraogo, Komi Afassinou, Abou Bakari Diabate
Renseignée par : KOUTOU Ousmane
Résumé

Bacterial meningitis is a severe infection affecting the protective membranes of the brain and spinal cord, with rapidly worsening symptoms that can lead to life-threatening complications. This study presents an autonomous deterministic epidemic model, SIaIsMRS, to explore the dynamics of bacterial meningitis in a community implementing control
strategies like media coverage, early diagnosis, isolation, and treatment. We adjust the transmission probability based on media coverage and calculate the effective reproduction
number, Ref , which includes contributions from asymptomatic $R_ef^a$ and symptomatic individuals $R_ef^s$ . We derive the basic reproduction number, R0, to characterize
initial infection spread and analyze the local stability of infection-free and endemic equilibria, using the Routh-Hurwitz criteria. For global stability, we apply Castillo-Chavez method for the infection-free equilibrium and the Lyapunov functional technique for the endemic equilibrium, after a uniform persistence study. A local sensitivity analysis evaluates the impact of each parameter on the threshold dynamical parameters $R_{ef}^a$ and $R_{ef}^s$ . We also explore an optimal control problem using Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The paper concludes with numerical simulations that bridge theoretical and numerical findings.

Mots-clés

Mathematical analysis, optimal control, bacterial meningitis, early diagnosis, media coverage, numerical results

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